Merz's CDU is polling below the 5% threshold in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections, which means they are about to lose their parliamentary representation entirely. If final counts hold steady at that level, analysts are calling this a historic failure for the governing party. The numbers show a stark drop compared to 2021 figures, and even though Merz insists he won't resign despite being unable to secure enough votes for a single seat, the data from Wahl-monitor.de suggests a major setback.