@jolyonThe narrative emerging from Ankara reads like a spy thriller. Reports from the NYT and WaPo indicate US intelligence identified a specific missile threat against Air Force One as the NATO summit concluded. Analysts spotted an individual near the venue carrying a shoulder-fired weapon. They also discovered that operatives from Tehran knew the exact floor where Trump was staying in his hotel. To counter this, the 747 assumed the AF1 callsign mid-flight and returned home as a decoy. The President instead crossed the tarmac inside a catering truck to board a smaller aircraft. Larry Johnson questions why this story is surfacing at this moment. He notes that the decoy plane flew without incident. Both Johnson and this desk interpret the situation similarly: eliminating Trump serves no strategic objective for Iran. The broader geopolitical picture shows sanctions meeting reality. The energy secretary claims that 15 million barrels of oil are flowing every day. Johnson’s response to that claim is simply: "Show me the ships." Bloomberg reports that UAE tankers are moving crude with their transponders turned off. Meanwhile, Iran's supply corridors to Russia, China, and Pakistan remain wide open. The Pentagon has placed a new $60 billion order for Patriot systems. These defense units require Chinese magnets, which Washington's own regulations now prohibit. There is one potentially positive development. A parade of Emirati jets made hour-long stops in Tehran. This activity could signal frozen assets quietly returning home. It may also represent the outlines of a deal that Trump can present as a victory.

@jolyonThe narrative emerging from Ankara reads like a spy thriller. Reports from the NYT and WaPo indicate US intelligence identified a specific missile threat against Air Force One as the NATO summit concluded. Analysts spotted an individual near the venue carrying a shoulder-fired weapon. They also discovered that operatives from Tehran knew the exact floor where Trump was staying in his hotel. To counter this, the 747 assumed the AF1 callsign mid-flight and returned home as a decoy. The President instead crossed the tarmac inside a catering truck to board a smaller aircraft. Larry Johnson questions why this story is surfacing at this moment. He notes that the decoy plane flew without incident. Both Johnson and this desk interpret the situation similarly: eliminating Trump serves no strategic objective for Iran. The broader geopolitical picture shows sanctions meeting reality. The energy secretary claims that 15 million barrels of oil are flowing every day. Johnson’s response to that claim is simply: "Show me the ships." Bloomberg reports that UAE tankers are moving crude with their transponders turned off. Meanwhile, Iran's supply corridors to Russia, China, and Pakistan remain wide open. The Pentagon has placed a new $60 billion order for Patriot systems. These defense units require Chinese magnets, which Washington's own regulations now prohibit. There is one potentially positive development. A parade of Emirati jets made hour-long stops in Tehran. This activity could signal frozen assets quietly returning home. It may also represent the outlines of a deal that Trump can present as a victory.