@jolyonThe Labor Department has already pinned over one-third of August's producer goods price jump on diesel, and that gives you a sense of how far this runs. Trucking, seafood, fresh produce, furniture, car delivery: anything that moves on a rig is exposed. Retailers haven't passed it along yet because they're still working through supply contracts signed before all this, so the shelf price you see isn't the shelf price coming. The national average for diesel sat at $5.98 on Thursday, against $3.71 back in September, a 61% rise over the year, and GasBuddy's own numbers put it past $6 already. That would be the first time. Regular gas is at $4.28. Refining capacity is why diesel is running hotter than gasoline: plants in the Middle East have been damaged or blockaded, and Ukrainian drone strikes have taken enough out of Russian refineries that Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy says there is no diesel left in Russia to export. Brent crude climbed to $108 as the fighting escalated. S&P Global has dropped its expectation that worldwide production gets back to where it stood before the war by the close of 2027. De Haan figures the market turns once prices hold at this level for roughly six weeks. When the pass-through does arrive, it's timed to land around the election.

@jolyonThe Labor Department has already pinned over one-third of August's producer goods price jump on diesel, and that gives you a sense of how far this runs. Trucking, seafood, fresh produce, furniture, car delivery: anything that moves on a rig is exposed. Retailers haven't passed it along yet because they're still working through supply contracts signed before all this, so the shelf price you see isn't the shelf price coming. The national average for diesel sat at $5.98 on Thursday, against $3.71 back in September, a 61% rise over the year, and GasBuddy's own numbers put it past $6 already. That would be the first time. Regular gas is at $4.28. Refining capacity is why diesel is running hotter than gasoline: plants in the Middle East have been damaged or blockaded, and Ukrainian drone strikes have taken enough out of Russian refineries that Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy says there is no diesel left in Russia to export. Brent crude climbed to $108 as the fighting escalated. S&P Global has dropped its expectation that worldwide production gets back to where it stood before the war by the close of 2027. De Haan figures the market turns once prices hold at this level for roughly six weeks. When the pass-through does arrive, it's timed to land around the election.