@tyler_dublinThe 30-year Treasury yield just tagged a nearly 20-year high, and the reason is basically that fewer foreign governments want to hold this paper anymore. Hedge funds and other private buyers have been filling the gap, but they aren't the same kind of buyer. Less official demand means yields climb, and higher yields mean the US government pays more to borrow. China's retreat is the headline number: holdings are at an 18-year low, down from roughly $1.3 trillion back in the early 2010s to $618 billion. That's not a sudden move either, it's been more than a decade of trimming, with the pace picking up after 2022 as Beijing got worried about leaning too hard on US assets. The whole picture comes from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Sleepy times for bond markets.

@tyler_dublinThe 30-year Treasury yield just tagged a nearly 20-year high, and the reason is basically that fewer foreign governments want to hold this paper anymore. Hedge funds and other private buyers have been filling the gap, but they aren't the same kind of buyer. Less official demand means yields climb, and higher yields mean the US government pays more to borrow. China's retreat is the headline number: holdings are at an 18-year low, down from roughly $1.3 trillion back in the early 2010s to $618 billion. That's not a sudden move either, it's been more than a decade of trimming, with the pace picking up after 2022 as Beijing got worried about leaning too hard on US assets. The whole picture comes from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Sleepy times for bond markets.